Alexander Volkanovski is coming off a loss, but he moved up a weight class to fight lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in a fight Volkanovski was not expected to win. Volkanovski gave Makhachev his toughest fight in years and got better as the fight went on, winning the last round on all three of the judges’ scorecards. Volkanovski is dropping back down to featherweight for this fight to defend his title against Yair Rodriguez.
Building a Same Game Parlay (SGP) on DraftKings Sportsbook around Volkanovski is a way to target a higher potential payout than betting on Volkanovski to win alone. Yair Rodriguez is difficult to finish—in 13 UFC fights dating back to 2014, the only time Rodriguez has been finished was due to a doctor stoppage in between rounds due to a cut/swollen eye.
Volkanovski is also not a big finisher—nine of Volkanovski’s last 12 fights have gone the distance. Instead, Volkanovski wins his fights primarily by using his speed to get in and out and land stinging striking volume without getting hit much in return. Volkanovski has landed nearly twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed, an excellent ratio, and has landed over six significant strikes per minute, which is elite striking volume. Volkanovski has recorded more significant strikes than his opponent in all 13 of his UFC fights, even in his loss to Islam Makhachev, where he out-struck Makhachev 70 to 57 in total significant strikes landed.
Volkanovski is also capable of recording takedowns in the right spots. Volkanovski is averaging 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, a rate about twice as good as Rodriguez, who is averaging under one takedown per 15 minutes. Rodriguez’s takedown defense is also not great on a rate basis, stopping 63% of opponent takedown attempts. Rodriguez has been taken down at least once in each of his last four fights, and Rodriguez’s opponent has also recorded more takedowns than Rodriguez in each of those four fights. It’s realistic that Volkanovski could mix in some takedowns in this fight to give Rodriguez a different look, which is a strategy Volkanovski used in his win against Chan Sung Jung, where he initiated eight takedown attempts and successfully converted four of them.
