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Adesanya is a tall and lengthy kickboxer who has enjoyed a significant reach and range advantage over most of his opponents at middleweight. Adesanya uses his length to position himself just outside of his opponent’s striking range, which makes it difficult to land a clean shot on Adesanya. Adesanya then punishes his opponents with his superior striking from distance, and his takedown defense and defensive grappling have been good enough to fend off the grapplers he has faced at middleweight.

Alex Pereira presents a significant matchup problem for Adesanya because Pereira can match most of Adesanya’s advantages at middleweight. Pereira is an elite kickboxer who is huge for the division, and his height, reach and striking skill are very similar to Adesanya’s. Adesanya will not be able to position himself outside of Pereira’s striking range to the same degree that he has enjoyed in most of his middleweight fights, and this is dangerous against someone as explosive as Pereira. This will likely be Adesanya’s biggest challenge to date in the middleweight division.

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Pereira has big knockout power and put Adesanya’s lights out with a left hook in their second kickboxing match. Pereira has one of the greatest left hooks in combat sports, and his left hook was also his money punch in his most recent knockout win against Sean Strickland. The left hook from an orthodox fighter onto another orthodox fighter can be such a devastating punch because the lead defensive shoulder is on the opposite side of the left hook, which gives more clearance to find the chin on the left side.

While the two are very similarly matched in terms of fighting skill, Adesanya does carry a significant advantage in UFC experience and UFC title fight experience, which could be notable as the fight wears on. Adesanya has fought in eight five-round title fights in the UFC, something that Pereira has not experienced yet. Pereira only has seven total MMA fights. Title fight experience and five-round MMA fight experience could be the difference maker in this fight between two fighters who are very even in terms of skill.

If Adesanya can pace himself, keep himself safe early, let Pereira slow down and then take over in the championship rounds, he could position himself to win a decision using precision striking.

Pick: Israel Adesanya To Win By Decision (+120)

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