(No. 3) Justin Gaethje vs (No. 6) Rafael Fiziev

Justin Gaethje

Upside With Win: Almost none. He’d retain his ranking, but owns losses to two of the men ranked just above him: Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira.

Downside With Loss: Significant. He holds a win over No. 5 Michael Chandler, so his drop would likely still keep him in or near the top five. But a loss would put him at 2-3 out of his last five bouts, and in the game of inches that is the lightweight division, it could seriously stall a title run in 2023.