Chartier: I think Ankalaev has to stay out of a firefight — he has to touch-and-move, touch-and-move, and maybe mix in some takedowns to keep Jan honest, but not play a jiu jitsu game with him. Touch-and-move, maybe get some wrestling in, but don’t commit to a firefight.
For Jan, he’s got to close the distance, try to get big paws on him, look to get that clean shot, but also, I think he’s got to wrestle. I think if he can wrestle, get on top, make him work a little bit, that adds stress, so I think he’s got to mix it up.
Marshall: Blachowicz has to get into long exchanges and make it a brawl, in my opinion. If he can make it a brawl; a brawl-ish style fight.
If you watched the fight this past weekend between “Wonderboy” and Kevin Holland, I know Holland lost, but that was his path to victory. We have never seen Stephen Thompson’s face look like that after a fight. That was Kevin Holland’s path to victory and he was executing, and then his hand broke and we was getting tired.
Reasons To Watch | UFC 282: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev
Same thing with Blachowicz: he’s got to have more of that ugly, dirty style fight because if Ankalaev — Ankalaev could make this fight ridiculously boring if he wants, and his path to victory is to control it. I could see a late stoppage if Jan is really pushing that brawl style and getting tired later in the fight.
X Factor
If there were one thing that was going to significantly impact how this fight plays out — that swings it in one direction or the other — what would it be?
Marshall: It’s the power of Blachowicz; that’s the X factor.
Somebody that has that “sleep touch,” as I like to call it. Francis (Ngannou) has it. Derrick Lewis has it. That’s where things always get weird. The punch that Francis put Rozenstruik out with — his chin is up in the air, he’s falling, leaning, barely hits him, and he’s out-out; unconscious out; same thing with Stipe.
Jan has that kind of power too, and it’s weird and awkward, and the herky-jerkiness of Jan’s style — what I said are his strengths are also the X factor because it’s so hard to prepare for. You can’t prepare for it whatsoever because when you spar with bigger gloves, when you have boxing gloves on, they block things and don’t hit the same way, so you think you’re safe in a way from that power, and when you put that four-ounce glove on, you’re not.
That’s always the X factor with guys with power in MMA.
