Where We Stand: Lightweight Division | December 2021

Outlook: Oliveira couldn’t have turned in a more emphatic performance to cement his status as the lightweight champion in his first title defense. In three rounds, he stood and traded with Poirier, maintained top control for essentially a whole round and then earned a submission finish. It was a full display from the Brazilian, proving he is truly one of the most dangerously well-rounded fighters in a division full of excellent fighters. Justin Gaethje appears to be next, with Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush set to battle for the next in line, so Oliveira has the opportunity to quickly build his championship legacy in 2022.

Outlook: In his lone fight of 2021, Gaethje produced the immediate clubhouse leader for Fight of the Year in his three-round battle with Michael Chandler. “The Highlight” weathered the early storm from Chandler and methodically (and violently) turned the tide in his favor. While he indulged in some wild exchanges, Gaethje kept his cool and did the requisite things to earn the decision victory. Now, he seems like the next in line to challenge for undisputed gold, his second shot at the outright title.  

Outlook: The script seemed written for “The Diamond” at UFC 269. After a banner year, Poirier could have capped 2021 off with his long-awaited coronation as undisputed champion. Alas, the fight game does not care about narratives, and Poirier fell short again. What comes next for him is a mystery. Retirement rumors floated around as he wants to spend more time with his wife and daughter, but at 32, Poirier has plenty of years in his prime remaining. He has teased a move to welterweight but remains one of the best lightweights on the planet. He already holds a win over Justin Gaethje, so if Gaethje beats Oliveira, he could have a fast track to another title shot, but a win is likely necessary to cement that. The impending fight between Beneil Dariush and Islam Makhachev could produce the next title challenger or someone Poirier can thwart so he can get back at the front of the line. A matchup with Chandler is interesting, although that fight might not carry as much weight with Chandler coming off back-to-back losses.

Outlook: After 18 months without a fight, Islam Makhachev returned in 2021 with a vengeance. He reeled off three consecutive submission wins over quality opponents in Drew Dober, Thiago Moisés and Dan Hooker, and he is now firmly in the “who wants to take this fight?” category of fighter. Like his friend and mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev has the same type of unrelenting, sambo-based grappling style that suffocates opponents. Dariush presents someone with highly regarded jiu jitsu to potentially stave off Makhachev’s takedowns, and proving he can get past that is key for Makhachev’s title bid that seems more inevitable by the day.

Outlook: Three fights into his UFC career, Chandler has certainly made a mark despite only going 1-2 in those bouts. He turned in a debut-of-the-year with his knockout win over Dan Hooker, nearly won the belt when he rocked Oliveira at UFC 262 and then went toe-to-toe with Justin Gaethje for 15 minutes in a Fight of the Year contender. Not bad. Of course, his ultimate goal remains UFC gold, and his stock hasn’t really wavered since that initial victory. He called for a fight against Conor McGregor on Twitter, and McGregor seemed open to it. Granted, it’s unclear if that’ll actually come to fruition. He could take on the loser of the Dariush-Makhachev tilt. A fight with Poirier is enticing, but whether Poirier believes fighting Chandler off two losses is beneficial enough to him is yet to be seen.