Cannonier used to fight at heavyweight and will have a longer frame than Adesanya’s most recent opponents at middleweight. Cannonier’s 77-inch reach is the longest reach Adesanya has faced at middleweight since he fought Anderson Silva in February 2019. Adesanya has had at least a six-inch reach advantage in each of his last six fights at middleweight, and he will only have a three-inch reach advantage for this fight. Cannonier’s longer arms will give Adesanya less room to work at range.
The best path to beat Adesanya is through takedowns and top control. Jan Błachowicz executed this game plan in his win over Adesanya in March 2021, but that fight was at light heavyweight. Błachowicz enjoyed an extra 20 pounds of bulk, which helped make takedowns and top control far easier. At middleweight, Adesanya has been difficult to take down and hold down for long. Adesanya has been taken down four times in each of his last two fights, but was able to get back to his feet without giving up much on the ground.
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Cannonier does not have the elite wrestling background to keep Adesanya on his back, which strongly limits his ways to win. Cannonier has recorded only two total takedowns in 13 UFC fights, which is a paltry rate of 0.23 per 15 minutes. That should turn this into primarily a striking match, where Cannonier will be badly overmatched by Adesanya. Adesanya is one of the best strikers in the entire sport.
Cannonier has been knocked out twice in his UFC career and was dropped by strikes in his most recent fight against Derek Brunson. Without having to worry excessively about the threat of a strong takedown, Adesanya is in a good position to utilize his elite striking and win this fight by KO/TKO.
Pick: Israel Adesanya To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
Holloway and Volkanovski are two of the toughest fighters in the UFC. Holloway and Volkanovski have only been finished a combined two times in 54 total fights, and neither fighter has been finished recently. Volkanovski’s last loss via finish came in 2013, with Holloway’s last loss via finish coming in 2012. Holloway has an iron chin and his ability to eat punches without it affecting him is remarkable.
