Kyte: Everyone would love a 10-second knockout or a quick submission, but that’s not often how these things go, especially not at the championship level. Instead, it’s usually the competitor that has crafted the better game plan and did the better job of executing things inside the Octagon that comes away with their hand raised and the gold around their waist.
So, how does either man get it done on Saturday night?
Nicksick: The last time, we talked about Pereira owning the geography, and I think it’s going to be very similar in a lot of ways because both guys kind of showed their hands in the last fight.
That being said, it’s going to be important for Pereira to put Izzy on his back foot so that if and when Izzy decides to shoot or tries to take him down, it’s on Alex’s terms and he’s ahead of the sprawl, ahead of the takedown, and can utilize his strength and his big body. It’s a lot easier when you get a guy backed up to the barrier and he’s only got three options — left, right, or shoot.
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I also think he’s got that mind control over Izzy, and I think Izzy might come out overzealous and try to get a finish in this one because of what happened last time, so I think Pereira just has to bide his time, and make sure he forces Izzy into those corner posts.
Marshall: I don’t think Izzy can back himself up to the cage like he did; that’s what led to the knockout.
What led to the knockout was fatigue — which is going to happen if we have a long fight — and then when you’re cornered against the Octagon, you move a little slower, there are less places for you to go, you can’t evade the punches as well, so he can’t be backed up to the cage again. He has to have move motion going on so that he can do more of the style bender things that he does.
He could wrestle a little more, but he’s not a great wrestler, and defense is always easier to learn than offense, and he’s got to be worried about that going into this fight because offensive wrestling and failing is very fatiguing.
I also think Izzy is going to have to create the counter, in my opinion. The way I like to say it is that you throw the jab with the intention of then countering the jab, so you’re jabbing and pulling, you’re jabbing and stepping, and then catching them on the half-beat. He definitely doesn’t want Pereira going first, because that will back him to the cage, which is no good, so first and third, but he’s got to be evading on two.
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And for Pereira, it’s not much different, but I think he could be a little more first; I feel like he could put a little more pressure on Izzy because it doesn’t seem as though Izzy has the skills to get him out of there on the mat.
I’m going to assume that defensive wrestling comes quicker than offensive wrestling, so I would step on the gas pedal a little more because he was down 3-1 going into that last round. He needed that finish and that’s a hard thing.
We saw it a couple weeks ago with Cory Sandhagen and “Chito” Vera; going in there needing the finish. You heard it from Jason Parillo talking to “Chito” like, “What’s up, dude? We can’t get behind like this!” And then when he was all the way behind, Parillo was like, “All right, you gotta go stop him!”
Nicksick: I think for Izzy, going back and watching the last fight — he was doing a lot of good things on the feet and he rocked him a bunch of times. I think he — I don’t want to say that he didn’t believe in his striking, but I feel like he rushed takedowns because that was part of the game plan, but they weren’t really necessary in certain regards because he was doing a good job of striking.
I think in this fight, in particular, he’s got to believe in his striking — you are that guy, and be creative with your striking. Utilize your level change a little more in this fight, because he did show his hand in the first fight and they’re going to assume you’re going to come out and wrestle, so use that feint level change to start setting up some of the shots with your hands.
And if and when you look for takedowns, have smart, efficient routes — don’t be trying to push the wrestling pace because I think that’s part of what got him into trouble in the latter rounds. Be a little more efficient with the takedowns — I would suggest using more inside, outside trips, using your legs more rather than trying to drop down for singles and doubles because trying to take down a big man like Alex Pereira is tough.
