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Deiveson Figueiredo has some of the most potent power punching and finishing skills in the flyweight division. Figueiredo has recorded the most knockdowns in the history of the flyweight division with 11 and ranks fourth in knockdowns on a time-adjusted basis. Figueiredo also actively hunts submissions and has a very dangerous submission game. Figueiredo has attempted 18 submissions in the UFC, tied for the most among all flyweights, and ranks third in finishing submissions on a time-adjusted basis. Figueiredo is confident in his guard and scrambling, which allows him to aggressively attack submissions because he does not fear being on his back.

Despite Figueiredo showcasing explosive fight-finishing skills against most of the flyweight division, Brandon Moreno’s iron chin and incredible toughness have resulted in two of their three fights going the distance over 25 minutes.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno 1 was a classic fight and highly competitive. Figueiredo landed several vicious strikes that would have badly hurt most other opponents, but Moreno’s iron chin allowed him to eat the shots. The final striking tally was very close, with Figueiredo landing five more significant strikes—137 to 132. The fight officially ended in a draw, but Figueiredo would have won a decision had he not been deducted a point for a groin strike.

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In their second fight, Moreno showcased significant improvements in all aspects of his game, working Figueiredo over on the feet and out-grappling Figueiredo. Moreno showcased a sharp, stinging jab that dropped Figueiredo and out-landed Figueiredo 47 to 24 in significant strikes. Moreno got the better of Figueiredo in scrambles and took his back multiple times, which ultimately set up the fight-winning rear-naked choke. Figueiredo looked off all fight, and Figueiredo later cited a poor weight cut as the reason for his subpar performance.

In their third fight, Figueiredo finally wobbled Moreno’s iron chin, officially knocking Moreno down three times. The biggest blow of the fight came in the final seconds of Round 3, where Figueiredo landed a hard right straight to knock Moreno down and was working on a front choke as the clock ran out. Moreno may have been saved by the bell, as more time on the clock could have resulted in a finish given Figueiredo’s potent submission game. Figueiredo also was much more aggressive with offensive wrestling in their third fight, attempting 11 takedowns, easily the most takedown attempts he’s recorded in a fight in the UFC. Figueiredo’s power punching ultimately helped him win a decision despite being out-struck 105 to 86 in total significant strikes. Moreno out-struck Figueiredo in both total head strikes (71 to 40) and total distance strikes (100 to 80), but Figueiredo’s strikes to the head were more impactful and did more damage.

The fourth fight could have a similar theme to the third fight. Figueiredo’s striking defense is leaky, as he is prone to keeping his hands remarkably low, which makes him hittable. As a result, Moreno has more clearance to register striking volume. Through three fights, Moreno has landed 284 total significant strikes, compared to 247 for Figueiredo. However, Figueiredo has the clear edge in power striking, which the judges take into account when rendering their decision.

Both fighters are incredibly tough and difficult to finish, so this has the makings of another long fight between two fighters who know each other extremely well. Moreno has not officially been finished in any of his professional fights, although he was finished once on The Ultimate Fighter, which is not included on his pro fight record. The only time Figueiredo was ever finished was in their second fight, which Figueiredo attributes to a poor weight cut.

Because both of these fighters are so incredibly tough and fight at a weight class that has less mass and less force behind it, we could see another fight go to decision. Taking the fight to go the distance also creates margin for error in picking the winner.

Pick: Exact Method of Victory: Decision (-135)

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